Tycoon market slice (heuristics + RNG only)

name: Tycoon Market Slice overview: Make NearSol tycoon-complete with a hub order book, inventory-throttled production, light price elasticity, and a 4-firm split—all agent logic as seeded heuristics plus DeterministicRandom. Kernel owns market primitives; dogfood owns firm roles and UI/report. todos:

• id: kernel-hub-orders

content: HubOrder types, commands/events, world list, MatchHubOrdersPhase + tests status: completed

• id: kernel-throttle-elastic

content: ProductionThrottle helper + DemandEngine elasticity (default 0) + tests status: completed

• id: kernel-moneystock

content: MoneyStock.Liquid helper + closed-loop Δ vs imports test hook status: completed

• id: publish-economy

content: Test, push, publish Novolis.Economy. 2026.1. status: completed

• id: nearsol-firms

content: Split Mining/Industry/Station/Carrier seed + toll treasury on Station status: completed

• id: nearsol-heuristics

content: Four heuristic controllers; tramp clears book spreads; RNG jitter only status: completed

• id: nearsol-verify

content: Dashboard/report P&L + book depth; headless 1000d acceptance; push dogfood status: completed isProject: false

Locked scope

Ship the minimum capitalism slice that fixes the 1000d failure modes (glut, dead tramp, opaque monopoly):

1. Hub order book + local match + tramp clearing cross-hub spreads
2. Production throttle from unsold stock
3. Elastic retail demand (price vs reference)
4. Four firms with visible P&L: Mining, Industry, Retail/Station, Carrier (tramp)
5. Stock–flow audit on liquid money (Δ liquid ≈ −imports under closed policy)

Agent policy: no planners/ML — only threshold heuristics + DeterministicRandom (from EconomySimulation seed) for jitter (quote noise, job pick among near-tied margins).

Out this pass: bankruptcy/credit, capacity investment UI, labor market, full GE, Astro-in-Economy, Spectre→Avalonia product UI.

flowchart TB
  subgraph kernel [Novolis.Economy]
    Book[HubOrderBook]
    Match[MatchHubOrdersPhase]
    Throttle[ProductionThrottle]
    Elastic[DemandEngine elasticity]
  end
  subgraph firms [NearSol firms]
    Mine[MiningHeuristic]
    Ind[IndustryHeuristic]
    Ret[RetailHeuristic]
    Carry[TrampHeuristic]
  end
  Mine -->|PostSell Raw| Book
  Ind -->|PostBuy Raw / PostSell Capital Final Energy| Book
  Ret -->|PostBuy Final / SetRetailPrice| Book
  Carry -->|haul + TransferGoodsForCash| Book
  Match --> Book
  Throttle --> Mine
  Throttle --> Ind
  Elastic --> Ret

1. Kernel — hub order book

Package: `Novolis.Economy.Markets` + wire through `EconomyWorld` / phases.

• Types: HubOrderSide { Buy, Sell }, HubOrder(Id, FirmId, InventoryLocationId, ProductId, Side, Quantity Remaining, Money LimitPrice, SimulationHour PostedAt).
• World: List<HubOrder> HubOrders (or dict by location).
• Commands/events in `CommandsAndEvents.cs`:
• PostHubOrder(...), CancelHubOrder(Id)
• HubOrderPosted, HubOrderFilled(partial|full), HubOrderCancelled
• Local match new phase (after ApplyDecisions / before or after Acquire): same LocationId + product, buy limit ≥ sell limit, fill FIFO by post time then id; settle with existing inventory move + PostCashSale/PostCashPurchase (same mechanics as TransferGoodsForCash).
• Cross-hub not auto-matched in kernel — carriers read the book and haul (game/dogfood).

Unit tests: two firms same hub → fill; crossed prices no fill; partial fill.

2. Kernel — production throttle + elastic demand

• `ProductionThrottle.Rate(baseRate, onHand, target, floorRate=0)` in Production or Markets: when onHand ≥ target, rate → floor; linear taper above ~0.7×target. Pure helper; scenarios call it when emitting SetProductionPlan.
• `DemandEngine`: optional priceElasticity (default 0 = today’s behavior). When > 0, scale category budget (or max buy qty) by (refPrice/postedPrice)^elasticity clamped. Reference = posted price at first offer or product’s rolling MarketBook last price; keep deterministic order.

Unit tests: overstock → zero/near-zero throttle; higher price → less qty bought when elasticity > 0; elasticity 0 preserves commodity-chain tests.

3. Kernel — stock–flow helper

• Small pure helper e.g. MoneyStock.Liquid(world) = Σ firm cash + Σ cohort budgets (same as NearSol CreditCirculation.LiquidStock).
• Test assertion helper: over a closed-loop run with known imports, |ΔLiquid + ImportSpend| < ε (document any intentional sinks). Fix NearSol leaks found while wiring (imports must be the only cash exit under closed policy).

4. NearSol — four firms + opening cash

Rewrite seed in `PolityWorld.cs`:

Remove monolithic co-op ownership of all sites; map each site’s production/retail facility to the right firm. Keep Astro bridge as-is.

5. NearSol — heuristic controllers (RNG jitter only)

Replace / split `PolityController` + retarget `TrampFleetAutopilot`:

• MiningHeuristic: throttle Raw plan via ProductionThrottle; PostHubOrder sell Raw when stock above floor; buy Capital when below MinePartsFloor (limit = gate±RNG ticks).
• IndustryHeuristic: buy Raw / sell Capital+Final+Energy on hub book; throttle each product by local stock; small RNG on limit prices (±few %).
• StationHeuristic: buy Final (and light Capital) on book; SetRetailPrice via pressure + elasticity-facing asks; no feeder monopoly — internal short hops only if book empty (rare).
• CarrierHeuristic: scan book for sell@A + buy@B same SKU with delivered edge ≥ MinMargin after HaulCostEstimator; lift via buy/match at A, PlanShipment, sell/match at B; RNG only to break ties among near-equal routes.

Pulse order in `Program.cs`: Mining → Industry → Station → Carrier → AdvanceAsync (book match runs inside kernel phases).

6. Dogfood observability (tycoon-readable)

• Dashboard + `HeadlessReport`: per-firm cash, revenue, COGS proxy, open buy/sell depth top hubs, produced vs sold, liquid Δ vs imports, tramp fills/day.
• Acceptance `--headless 1000d`:
• households not permanently ~0
• |ΔLiquid + imports| small
• B2B/book fills keep growing after day 100 (tramp not frozen)
• produced/sold ratio not runaway (throttle working)

7. Release path

1. Economy unit tests → commit/push → GPR 2026.1.*
2. Dogfood restore nuget.org+github only → NearSol retarget → commit/push
3. Short notes in Economy docs/design.md / release.md (hub orders, throttle, elasticity)

Non-goals

ML/utility maximizers, soft loans, multiplayer, Avalonia tycoon shell, firm count > 4 this pass.